In this chart I have plotted past data for global energy supplies with a log vertical scale and added a projection of the sum of all renewable energies assuming that the deployed capacity increases at the same rate as it has for the last twenty years.
It shows how the amount of renewable energy could replace fossil fuel energy in a decade provided:
- Installed energy storage capacity is sufficient
- Carbon free manufacture of steel and cement is developed.
Stored energy technology is well established. If the current level of deployment increasing at the Guide Growth Rate was sufficient, then we would be in with a chance.
Development of carbon free of steel manufacture is still under development so it would seem it has a long way to go.
There are also other manufacturing processes that use fossil fuel fired furnaces. In most cases it must be possible to use hydrogen instead. The rate of conversion depends on the deployment of hydrogen storage and transmission and the Guide Growth Rate will apply
Data
Energy Institute – Statistical Review of World Energy (2023) – with major processing by Our World in Data. “Other renewables (including geothermal and biomass)” [dataset]. Energy Institute, “Statistical Review of World Energy” [original data].